The World’s Gone Crazy

Yeah, I took the entire season off. Yeah. I did. Ball Wonk took off two seasons, and just came back so leave me alone.

Now, what would stir me to blog after a year of non-updating (in November, no less)?

Easy. Disrespect.

Somebody smudged our proverbial Pumas, Nats Fans. Ryan Zimmerman, FoTF, formerly Gold Glove winning, and repeating Silver Slugger, finished 16th in NL MVP voting. SIXTEENTH.

He didn’t have his best year. Oh, what? He had a career high in .AVG? And .OPS? As Adam Kilgore tweeted, “Ryan Zimmerman: 3rd in NL WAR(FG), 7th in OPS+, 4th in UZR, 16th in MVP. Everyone can take back what they said about Felix winning Cy.”

Wow. Players who finished in front of him: Aubrey Huff, Martin Prado, Buster Posey, Jayson Werth, Brian Wilson and Scott Rolen. Sigh. AUBREY HUFF? MARTIN PRADO? Good thing these awards don’t come with large financial bonuses, so it doesn’t matter that these writer’s pulled names out of their butts.

Also, Adam Dunn. Sign him. Josh Willingham, do not trade him. Ivan Rodriguez, trade him for a sack of potatoes. Bring up any number of prospects, and if we’re gonna endure a losing season again in the Spring, let’s at least do it with players who have potential. That is all.

After Strasburg: What is this team?

After attending the second game of back to back contests at Nationals Park, and watching the wild dichotomy in attendance, intensity, and pitching talent between the two, it puts one in a reflective mood. With the utter dominance of a phenom like Strasburg, and the performance of the offensive spine of the team, a fan could be forgiven for thinking the sky was the limit (playoffs).
But watching last night’s game, despite the resulting victory, showed weaknesses that will keep this team from October baseball. Defensively, this team is awful. There a number of reasons for this:
1) Our outfielders cannot read the ball off of the bat. I’m not sure if this is an optical situation, or they just suck at it. But 90% of balls hit in the air, not directly at a fielder will be caught in a way that does not belie confidence, or missed spectacularly.
2) Despite Ian Desmond’s impressive UZR, that puts him among the top in the NL, he still manages to fluff his lines on a simple play. As the observation has surely been made, the hard plays he’s able to focus on, the routine, he’ll not move his feet enough, or short arm the throw. It may be telling that Desmond said earlier this week that he’s able to focus more late in the game when he’s hitting.
3) Non defensive Defensive backups. Wil Nieves. I’m not going to say much else.

Despite his player of the game performance last night, I’m still not sold on Roger Bernadina as an everyday option in right. Additionally, while Atilano has performed admirably in his MLB spell, he reminds of Shairon Martis, who I became briefly enamored of, until he turned into a walk machine.

Mike Rizzo has a decision to make. Sitting in the back of the pack in the NL East, but in definitive striking distance, this Nationals team has outpaced anyone’s reasonable expectations. Willingham is turning into a stud in LF, Dunn is hitting for average, Capps is the freaking MLB saves leader, Atilano has 6 wins, Pudge has been otherworldly, Clippard has the highest swing and miss rate in all of MLB, and all of this despite Jason Marquis not being healthy, John Lannan sucking, Scott Olsen being hurt again, and Wil Nieves having to play more than once a week.

The pieces are in AAA and AA to make a move for a salary dump on an out of the race team. The name being most touted, Roy Oswalt, would probably being mighty costly, and the Astros are sure to want good pitching in return. That may be the main reason I don’t see this deal getting done, unless by “good pitching” they mean Brad Meyers, Luis Atilano, and Colin Balester. Cliff Lee obviously isn’t happening, so let’s move on. Fausto Carmona and Jeremy Guthrie could be had. But the best scenario for Rizzo is that Detwiler and Wang and Marquis all come back guns a blazin’.

I wouldn’t mind Corey Hart, the suddenly non-shitty Andruw Jones, or David Dejesus.

What do you think?

Best Day of the Year

Without a doubt, my favorite day of the year is Opening Day.  Since I was a senior in High School and had dominion in such matters, I would skip school or work and watch baseball all day.  Tomorrow, I continue my legacy of such truancy with a half day at work followed by catching the Nationals home opener.

I know we’ve been silent here for awhile, but the season starts, and I no longer have to think about the last spot in the bullpen, or if Eric Bruntlett or Alberto Gonzalez would make the team (It was the AG).  Kyle and I will both be in attendance with our women, and I’d expect some pictures, a recap, and some major heavy duty twittering.  You’ll most likely be elsewhere, but come swing by here when you’re done.

Ignore this Fantasy Primer, Part II: Nationals That You Should Make Someone Else’s Problem

This post concludes a fantasy baseball primer on (maybe) your Washington Nationals. Previously, I covered Nationals worth pursuing at practically any level of fantasy baseball play. This installment will run down Nationals that should only employ if you are trying to run your team into the ground.

There is no such thing as a “bust” in fantasy baseball in 2010. Some players, like Russell Branyan or Rich Harden, receive the kid gloves treatment due to their extensive injury histories. Certain fantasy managers avoid these players for said histories. Other players, such as Garrett Atkins or Andruw Jones, are toxic assets, based on their talent that happened to magically evaporate. They earn consideration from fantasy managers based on reputation, but are still largely avoided. All of these players fall under the “bust” umbrella, despite the possibility that they might turn it around in 2010.

That being said, and since I have the floor here – and fantasy season is but a March Madness away – I thought it time to discuss three Nationals that you should avoid if at all possible. I do not pretend for this to appear particularly serious – ain’t no BUH% to see here…

SS Cristian Guzman: Guzman: Fantasy Stats:: Kevin Bacon: Hollow Man.

P Scott Olsen: I understand that the Nats are not exactly National League East contenders. I also understand that the front office values depth when it comes to pitching. After all, Miguel Batista and Shawn Estes are non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Olsen started eleven games for Washington in 2009, racking up a 2-4 record, including a 6.03 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 1.68 K/BB ratio. Opponents hit .320 against Olsen in 2009. These are red flags. Hell, these are white flags. Whatever color flags you prefer, make sure they don’t involve seeking Olsen for your fantasy team. CHONE has Olsen starting 22 games for Washington in 2o10, to the tune of a 5-9 record, complete with a 5.18 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.64 K/BB ratio. Olsen will start in 2010 for several reasons: guilt over the Emilio Bonifacio trade (maybe), he’s a million dollar “investment,” no one wants to give the ball to Livan Hernandez…you get the point. The Nationals, at some point in 2010, must start Olsen. Fantasy managers this season have the luxury of avoiding this quagmire.

C Iván Rodríguez: Blasphemer! Heretic! Infidel! I can hear the hounds baying for blood now. The suggestion that the legendary I-Rod is useless in almost all forms of fantasy baseball seems sinful, but for reals. The Nats signed Rodríguez to show the fan base that the front office is unafraid to splurge on a “veteran presence.” $6MM over two years is, to me, about a year and three million dollars too much, but Ted Lerner has reasonably deep pockets. I digress. Last season Rodríguez hit .249/.280/.384 with 10 HR and 47 RBI. Readers – if you’re out there – that’s positively Varitekian. Marcel seems to have the most believable projection for the future Hall of Famer – .258/.295/.393 with 10 HR and 47 RBI – and he has the job security (for what that’s worth) to warrant such production. Rodríguez’s career is truly impressive, including the nine walks he took for the Tigers in 2007, but dudes and ladies. Please do not seek his services. There’s always Rod Barajas or Gregg Zaun.

Presto. Three Nationals your fantasy roster will survive without. This primer does not mean that there are Nationals that do not deserve consideration in the fantasy baseball realm. I only sought to showcase some of the more polarizing cases.

Ignore this Fantasy Primer, Part I: Nationals Worth Owning

There is no such thing as a “sleeper” in fantasy baseball in 2010. We can all pretend as though no one is hyping Julio Borbon, Alcidies Escobar, or David Price, but sweet, sweet Lord, they are not sleepers. Overemphasis on their “sleepiness,” if that might be such a way to describe it, seeps into us by the hydra that is the Fantasy Baseball Industrial Complex. My point here, and I do have one, is that if you are even slightly into fantasy baseball, you understand there are no secret players. You have to draft well, trade well, and dredge the waiver wire for the Next Big Thing.

That being said, and since I have the floor here – and fantasy season is but a March Madness away – I thought it time to discuss three Nationals worth pursuing in your league. I do not pretend for this to appear particularly serious – ain’t no VORP to see here…

1B/OF Adam Dunn:  the Big Donkey himself, everyone’s favorite DH-living-a-lie. Mercifully moved to first base for the 2010 season, he might be fantasy’s best bet for 40 HR and 100 RBI outside of the rarefied Pujols-Fielder-Howard air. Projection systems differ on Dunn’s 2010 slash line – I like Bill James’ line of .251/.371/.578 with 40 HR and 103 RBI for the Washington first baseman. Dunn is a good value pick if you do not get a chance to draft one of the top flight gentlemen at first base this season. However, I would rather use his OF eligibility while it lasts.

OF Nyjer Morgan: the guy who would be covering Dunn’s miscues in the outfield is like Willy Taveras with a bat instead of a toothpick in the box. Time will tell if the Nationals got the better end of the trade with Pittsburgh, but Morgan stole 42 bases before an August injury ended his season in 2009. Detractors will note catchers gunned Morgan down 17 times, tied for most in the league. Fangraphs (to me) seems to have the most realistic projection of a full season of Morgan: .295/.356/.375 with 89 R and 44 SB. Given his value in arguably three categories, it seems he is worth consideration as a bench bat – in the same manner you might look at Michael Bourn or Rajai Davis.

3B Ryan Zimmerman: is more than likely the only Nationals player your disinterested significant other recognizes as a player on the Nationals. He had an unquestionably stellar season in 2009, batting .292/.364/.525 with 33 HR, 106 RBI, and 110 R, and he seems poised to get even better. There are certainly third basemen valued higher, especially in mixed leagues – Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, and David Wright come to mind. Deciding between Zimmerman’s college teammate Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval might be a little more challenging. Per FanGraphs, Zimmerman’s .293/.364/.514 line  with 29 HR, 103 RBI, and 93 R looks fairly enticing.

Stay tuned for tomorrow’s installment of Ignore this Fantasy Primer, in which I run down three Nationals you should make someone else’s problem.

I don’t see nothing wrong with a little bump ‘n grind

Thought about titling this post “The Pregnancy Pact” but wanted to pay homage to Uncle R.

So “news” around Nats camp is that Josh Willingham’s wife has delivered a child and we’re still waiting on Guz 2.0.  I thought it very odd that both Willingham and Guzman both are expecting around the same time.  Coincidence (absolutely) I THINK NOT!

Allow me to indulge my secret dream to be a writer for the Weekly World News (bat boy? seriously?).  Now I could go down many roads here.  Swingers anyone? But I’m going to tie this loosely to baseball.  The average human gestation period is 280 days (40 weeks).  Counting back 40 weeks from today puts us in the late May, early June time frame.  A quick check of the results show that at this point the Nats had a stellar record of 14-36 and had just recently strung together 7 and 6 game losing streaks.  Nothing eases the pain of losing like gettin’ it on!

Seriously though, congrats to Guzzie and the Hammer!

Wang (hehehe)

A quick check for the Natosphere confirms my suspicion that we’re last to the party on the Chien-Ming Wang signing.  I prefer to call it fashionably late.

As has been previously reported here and here, Chien-Ming Wang has signed a deal with the Washington Nationals for one year, $2 million with incentives that could add another$3 mil.  While I’m not sure we will ever see the CMW of 2006-2007, I can’t view this in any other light than the club finally taking seriously the thought of putting a team on the field people will pay to see.  And at this price, it’s twice as nice.  I’m a little worried about the lack of interest of any other major league teams.  Why are we so jazzed about this guy when every other team decided to take a pass.  They certainly didn’t balk at the money he was looking for.  Had to be his health.  But seriously, we paid Austin Kearns $8 million last year and I was hoping he got injured.  At worst, the Nationals spend 2 million dollars on a guy who will make 5 starts, get shelled, and retire due to his injuries.  At best, the Nationals will end up with a 30 year old front-line starter.  Somewhere in the middle? He’s a deadline day expiring contract that could be very attractive to a contending team with pitching issues.  There’s not much downside whichever way you look at it.

Plus, we get to act like elementary school children and make dick jokes.  What could be better than that really?

My Lyin Eyes

First off, to those of you with a significant other, Happy Valentine’s Day!  Don’t say anything stupid that will ruin your night.  To those of you who are single today, Happy Sunday!  Go watch some Olympics!

I know this is early to be apologizing for lack of activity, but it’s been a while since we’ve had this blog operational, and its hard to keep it up.  Once Spring Training picks up, it should be a little easier.  We know there’s enough to read out there without listening to three guys with no access talk, but hey, we’re nice.

There has been a bunch of almost news since Shawn Estes signed a minor league deal.  We may sign Kris Benson. The Adam Kennedy move is done, with no 40 man roster move announced.  The done deal-not done deal-maybe near done deal with Chien Ming Wang has been discussed and a resolution should come sometime this next week.  Pitchers and Catchers report this week, and with that will come a lot more news.

But this post is about a phenomenon all too familiar with baseball fans.

I’m sure this has happened to you.  You go to a game, and you check who the starting pitchers will be, and make a funny face when you see its a battle of number 5 pitchers.  You console yourself in thinking, “Well, I guess that means we’ll see some runs.”  This particular scenario played out May 2nd, 2009.  I went to see the Nats face the Pujols-less Cardinals, and was of course surrounded by overfed, and volume immodulated St Lucians.  Shairon Maris was on the hill, and to that point he was 2-0, but many were unimpressed.  All I knew about him was that he had pitched a 7 inning no-hitter for Netherlands in the WBC 2006.

If for some reason you remember that game, you’d remember that it was insanely fast.  Like, I think my fiance was watching a tv show, and I was home before it finished.  But the take away from watching Martis throw a 5 hit 1 run complete game against the Cards made me a fan.  He has 6 k’s and no walks, which are considered his main vice.  Cody Rasmus is a bomb about 15 feet to my right in my LF Box seat, whereupon a flood of beer and flying food crumbs showered my neighbors.

It was also the game in which Austin Kearns hit a triple.  You may remember this, because it was rare.  Because Austin Kearns was awful last year.  Also, Adam Dunn hit one into space.  I think it may be a threat to the Space Station, but if it breaks something, they’ll just fix it.  Anyway, back to Shairon.  110 pitches, 79 strikes.  A picture of efficiency, and perfection.

Because of this game, I want Martis to make the team out of spring training.  I know he has a crazy BB/9 rate, I know he has no real big league pitch aside from his change up, and I know that his chances are slim.  But the point is, its amazing what a small sample size and being an eyewitness will do.  I mean, I went home and bought his rookie card!  That aside, the competition for spots 4 and 5 will be tough, and will be undoubtedly the main Spring Training storyline this spring.

But My ALCS Past Is Nipping at My Heels…

In the wee hours of Friday morning, it is being reported that the Nationals are close to signing second baseman/former Scott Feldman antagonist Adam Kennedy. An obvious reaction to being spurned by newly minted Minnesota Twin Orlando Hudson, the Nats chose the next (is best the right word here?) thing. We can hardly fault Rizzo ‘n Friends for wanting to make Washington’s middle infield situation a little more competitive. Kennedy and Cristian Guzman, it appears, will compete for the starting job at second base.

This is Orlando Hudson. He will not be playing for the Nationals in 2010.

Kennedy enjoyed a nice comeback in 2009, posting a .289/.348/.410 in 129 games for Oakland while playing all over the diamond. While that sounds palatable given the .251/.310/.341 the Nationals had at second base in 2009, Kennedy featured the defensive wizardry of one of those lions at the front of the New York Public Library. He rocked a UZR/150 of -14.8 in 50 games at second and -11.4 in 82 games at third, respectively, for Oakland last year.

This is Adam Kennedy. He, on the other hand, will be playing for the Nationals in 2010.

The man from Cal State Northridge is not that far removed from plus-defensive seasons, so perhaps he will bring his glove to Spring Training. Perhaps.

For now, let’s hold our collective breath that Kennedy’s contract is not in excess of $2MM. Well, in excess of $1.5MM. Well…

A Suspension of Disbelief

I’m tired of being cynical.  I’m tired of expecting the worst, and thinking things will never get better.  This offseason, I think I can stop being those things.  The days of Jason Simontacchi and Daniel Cabrera in our rotation are over.  No more Robert Fick or Henry Blanco clogging up the infield.  The foundation was always there, but this offseason, Mike Rizzo is making moves that are turning this team into an actual big league franchise.  Imagine that!

Step 1) Cut the driftwood.

Rizzo has done that, allowing players like Austin Kearns, Anderson Hernandez, and Ron Villone to drift away.  I don’t think he’s done yet, but this year’s team has seen a high percentage of turnover, which when you lose over 100 games, is a good thing.

Step 2) Pitching.  Lots of it.

Jason Marquis, Brian Bruney, Matt Capps, Tyler Walker, Matt Guardado, and Ryan Speier.  Um, not all the way there, obviously, but we’re trying.  Look for another starter or two, and maybe some more bullpen help.  Segueway…

Step 3) Remake the bullpen.

Wow, last year was just atrocious, wasn’t it?  Well, this year’s bullpen projects to look a little different.  No more Kip Wells and Julian Taverez.  This year, Matt Capps should close, Brian Bruney should setup, and the rest of the pen should be some combination of Tyler Clippard, Jason Bergmann, Sean Burnett, Drew Storen (I think he breaks camp with the team), maybe Doug Slaten or another FA.

Step 4) Try not to have minor league FAs start more than 1 game for your team.

We had a little of that last year with JD Martin, so hopefully we don’t repeat that.  I’d have to think, barring another signing which I think WILL occur, the rotation will shake out as follows: Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Craig Stammen, Ross Detwiler and Scott Olsen.  That rotation won’t win a division, but I don’t hate it.

Step 5) Improve defense.

Pending.  Sign O-Dawg, Mike. Do it.  Do it for the kids.

All in all, I’m telling you that I have a modicum of hope that this team will make baseball watchable in August, and not leave me finding ways to give away tickets in September.

By the way, this blog is both new and not new.  We were on Blogger for a year, took a year off, and decided to give it another go.  This blog will be less cynical than some, and less annoyingly positive than others.  Basically, expect some analysis, some funny pictures, and maybe some interesting opinions.  Tell your friends.  Link it up.

Lastly, a link to some pictures I took today at Natsfest.  Enjoy.